Center of the Universemoslereconomics.com
The Site of Economist Warren Mosler
New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey
Today 12:31 EDT
Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which means to me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress, and without a sufficient majority in the Senate...
Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs
October 21, 2020
Becoming clear housing isn’t doing all that well: The post Mtg purchase apps, Housing starts, Small business jobs appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production
October 16, 2020
Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower...
Unemployment, Small business, China exports
October 15, 2020
Still way high and moved up again- not good! The survivors are feeling a bit better: The post Unemployment, Small business, China exports appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Jobless claims, electricity production
October 09, 2020
Consumer sentiment, job openings, trade, new US covid cases
October 06, 2020
Up a bit but still way down overall: Familiar pattern. Down big, partial recovery, downtrend resumes: And weak from covid and the tariffs: Moving in the wrong direction as flu season approaches: The...
Vehicle sales, real estate loans
October 05, 2020
Still very weak: Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Note: dashed line is...
Employment, durable goods orders
October 02, 2020
Leveling off at very low levels of total employment: This is not adjusted for inflation: The post Employment, durable goods orders appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Mtg apps, ADP payrolls
September 30, 2020
Private businesses in the US hired 749K workers in September of 2020, the most in three months and above market expectations of a 650K rise raising hopes the labour market recovery strengthened. Still,...
Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven, freight index
September 28, 2020
Same pattern- dip, partial recovery, leveling off and never got back to 2008 levels inflation adjusted: The post Durable goods orders, air travel, hotel occupancy, gasoline supplied, miles driven,...
Unemployment claims, Architecture index, New home sales
September 24, 2020
Slightly higher than last week as they remain alarmingly high: Same pattern- big drop, some recovery, leveling off at lower levels: Same pattern developing but sales holding up at least for now: The...
Consumer sentiment, Existing home sales, Services
September 23, 2020
Not looking good: Up from the massive setback as some sales were delayed rather than cancelled: The emerging pattern seems to be the big collapse, a partial recovery, and then a tapering off from...
Consumer sentiment, current account
September 19, 2020
The current account deficit in the US widened by $59 billion, or 52.9%, to $170.5 billion in Q2 2020, the biggest gap since Q3 2008. It is equivalent to 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 2.1% in Q1. It...
Industrial production, Retail sales
September 16, 2020
Looks like we’ve stopped digging out of the hole: Sales have returned, at least for now, though a lot of sales were lost ‘forever’ due to covid: The post Industrial production, Retail sales appeared...
Unemployment claims, JOLTS
September 10, 2020
Not much evidence things getting anywhere near back to normal: The post Unemployment claims, JOLTS appeared first on The Center of the Universe .
Loans, interest margins
September 05, 2020
Business precautionary draw downs of lines of credit caused the spike, followed by a contraction as operational needs contract: Growth in real estate loans is slowing: Consumer borrowing dropped with...
Options buying, employment
September 04, 2020
The gap closed but at a slower rate indicating the extent to which the economy remains subdued 6 months into the crisis: Interesting- never seem gov sharply procyclical like this: The post Options...
Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade
September 03, 2020
Same large dip partial recover story: Down a bit but still way high this many months after the initial surge: The post Trucks and cars, Jobless claims, Trade appeared first on The Center of the...
Construction spending, payrolls, durable goods orders, NY Manufacturing
September 02, 2020
Growth has been working it’s way lower for a long time: Not much of a recovery here: Total orders for the last several months are way down: The post Construction spending, payrolls, durable goods...
Personal consumption, personal spending, rig count
August 28, 2020
Settling down as fiscal transfers subside, but still elevated: Income falling faster than consumption is growing: Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments The post Personal consumption, personal...
Jobless claims, corporate profits, Fed, COVID testing
August 27, 2020
Still over 1million new claims last week. This is seriously bad: They had already leveled off well before the collapse: As the carpenter said about his piece of wood: ‘No matter how much I cut off it’s...
Job postings, Bank loans
August 22, 2020
Falling off again: After a typical precautionary draw down of credit lines, business loan growth turned and remains negative: Total bank credit has gone flat: Consumer borrowing is down, partly because...
Oil drilling, Oil demand, Jobless claims, Architecture billings
August 20, 2020
Demand for petrol products dropping with the end of unemployment comp: Back up over 1 million new claims last week. Relapse underway without immediate fiscal adjustments: This leading indicator remains...
Housing starts, Japan, consumer spending, Europe, house prices
August 18, 2020
Looks like at best it’s going sideways: Bad!!! The Japanese economy shrank 7.8 percent on quarter in the three months to June 2020, compared with market forecasts of a 7.6 percent decline, and after a...
Vehicle sales, retail sales, industrial production
August 14, 2020
Remains depressed and had been slowing for several years: Seems back on track due to unemployment comp, etc. which has recently expired: Familiar pattern: The post Vehicle sales, retail sales,...
August 09, 2020
Some are going back to work, but employment is still dramatically low: Hiring of lower paid workers drives the average wage lower: Note the unprecedented drop in the labor force: The post Employment...
Still very weak- gone from increasing to decreasing: Slowdown plus fiscal adjustment supporting income increased imports vs exports, and oil production going from positive to negative is still in...
Durable goods orders, private payrolls
August 05, 2020
Familiar pattern, up a bit but still depressed What the President has been doing is expressing these moves up from the collapse in percentage terms, then stating the percentage gains are the largest...
Personal income and consumption
August 03, 2020
This shows the dependence on federal deficit spending to sustain incomes; Real personal consumption has collapsed-and particularly for services- far more than in 2008/09 even with the increase in...
So jobs and paychecks and profits were lost, but gov deficit spending more than made up for the lost personal income, but spending went down anyway, as personal savings went up. Then personal income...